Statistical Rethinking 2024: Lecture 2
Figures and models shown during the lecture The Garden of Forking Paths
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R '%3e%3cg%20transform='matrix(2.62,0,0,2.62,5476.682446,2950.142713)'%3e%3cg%20transform='matrix(1,0,0,1,-50,-50)'%3e%3cg%20transform='matrix(4.166667,0,0,4.166667,0,0)'%3e%3cpath%20d='M9.86,2C8.291,2%207,3.291%207,4.86L7,6.54L11.29,6.54C11.68,6.54%2012,7.11%2012,7.5L4.86,7.5C3.291,7.5%202,8.791%202,10.36L2,14.141C2,15.71%203.291,17.001%204.86,17.001L6.04,17.001L6.04,14.321C6.04,14.318%206.04,14.314%206.04,14.311C6.04,12.748%207.327,11.461%208.89,11.461C8.89,11.461%2014.14,11.461%2014.14,11.461C15.72,11.461%2017,10.19%2017,8.61L17,4.86C17,3.291%2015.709,2%2014.14,2L9.86,2ZM9.14,3.61C9.54,3.61%209.86,3.73%209.86,4.32C9.86,4.91%209.54,5.211%209.14,5.211C8.75,5.211%208.43,4.911%208.43,4.321C8.43,3.731%208.75,3.61%209.14,3.61'%20style='fill:rgb(106,106,106);fill-rule:nonzero;'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3cg%20transform='matrix(4.166667,0,0,4.166667,0,0)'%3e%3cpath%20d='M17.959,7L17.959,9.68C17.959,9.683%2017.959,9.686%2017.959,9.689C17.959,11.252%2016.672,12.539%2015.109,12.539C15.109,12.539%209.86,12.539%209.86,12.539C9.857,12.539%209.853,12.539%209.85,12.539C8.287,12.539%207,13.826%207,15.389C7,15.389%207,19.139%207,19.139C7,20.708%208.291,21.999%209.86,21.999L14.14,21.999C15.709,21.999%2016.999,20.709%2017,19.14L17,17.46L12.709,17.46C12.319,17.46%2012,16.89%2012,16.5L19.14,16.5C20.709,16.5%2022,15.209%2022,13.64L22,9.86C22,8.291%2020.709,7%2019.14,7L17.959,7ZM8.32,11.513L8.316,11.517L8.354,11.513L8.32,11.513ZM14.86,18.789C15.25,18.789%2015.57,19.089%2015.57,19.679C15.57,20.068%2015.249,20.389%2014.86,20.389C14.46,20.389%2014.14,20.269%2014.14,19.679C14.14,19.089%2014.46,18.789%2014.86,18.789'%20style='fill:rgb(153,153,153);fill-rule:nonzero;'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e){kind=small}
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Julia This notebook reproduces all the figures and code blocks shown during the The Garden of Forking Paths lecture from the 2024 lecture series.
Each code snippet comes with a time-tagged YouTube link, so you can jump right over to YouTube if you’d like to see what Richard says about the code.
The notebook touches on the following topics:
- Simulating binary outcomes
- Plotting histograms
- Computing posterior distributions
- Sequential updating of the posterior
- Simulating misclassification